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Market positioning

Speculative positioning from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, and retail crowding, across FX, metals, energy and indices. Each market is read against its own three year range, so an extreme here is comparable to an extreme anywhere else on the board.

Reading of 28 Oct, 14:54 London · COT print 20 Oct · retail 28 Oct

This describes where positioning sits in its own history. It is not a price forecast and it is not advice.

The most one-sided book this week

Speculators are at their most net short on Euro in two years

Euro positioning in full

Speculative positioning, every market

Most one-sided first. 80th percentile and above reads crowded long, 20th and below crowded short.

MarketLast 12 monthsReading Three year rangeNet positionWeek
EuroEUR · Currencies Most net short in two years 0th −68,840 −839
SilverXAG · Metals Least net long in two years 0th +3,505 −2,114
GoldXAU · Metals Least net long in 5 months 11th +104,206 −2,883
PalladiumXPD · Metals Most net short in a year 12th −11,994 −1,295
Canadian DollarCAD · Currencies Most net short in 2 months 15th −91,113 −3,001
Australian DollarAUD · Currencies Crowded long 84th +52,497 +1,906
Dow JonesDJIA · Indices Net long 76th +13,066 +2,193
Mexican PesoMXN · Currencies Net long 75th +63,814 +250
WTI CrudeWTI · Energy Net long 25th +36,187 −4,387
Nasdaq 100NDX · Indices Net long 75th +77,790 +2,467
US DollarUSD · Currencies Net long 72nd +3,183 +1,107
New Zealand DollarNZD · Currencies Net short 31st −19,280 −7,661
S&P 500SPX · Indices Net long 31st +901,377 −14,458
Swiss FrancCHF · Currencies Net short 34th −13,607 +1,334
Nikkei 225NI225 · Indices Net long 66th +6,516 +64
Japanese YenJPY · Currencies Net short 60th −22,890 +10,783
CopperHG · Metals Net long 60th +47,690 −13,368
British PoundGBP · Currencies Net long 44th +24,104 +13,791
PlatinumXPT · Metals Net long 49th +6,589 −454

19 markets. The line is the last twelve months of net positioning, scaled to each market's own range. Week is the change on the previous print. The CFTC publishes on Friday for the Tuesday before.

Retail crowding

The share of retail accounts on each side, most lopsided first. Desks read it contrarian.

  • NZD/CHF 84% long
  • USD/CHF 80% long
  • NZD/CAD 79% long
  • NZD/USD 78% long
  • EUR/GBP 75% long
  • NZD/JPY 75% long
  • EUR/CHF 74% long
  • AUD/NZD 73% short
  • CAD/CHF 73% long
  • CHF/JPY 70% short
  • EUR/AUD 69% long
  • GBP/CHF 69% long
  • GBP/NZD 68% short
  • EUR/USD 65% long
  • AUD/CHF 65% long
  • AUD/CAD 65% short
  • EUR/CAD 63% long
  • USD/JPY 60% short
  • GBP/AUD 58% long
  • EUR/NZD 57% short
  • GBP/USD 56% long
  • GBP/JPY 56% long
  • EUR/JPY 55% short
  • AUD/USD 53% long
  • GBP/CAD 53% short
  • CAD/JPY 53% long
  • USD/CAD 51% short
  • AUD/JPY 51% short

One market, week by week

Whether a position is being built or unwound: the last twelve prints and the change each week.

Euro

Currencies · speculative net position, weekly · as of 20 October 2026

Net position−68,840net short, contracts
Three year percentile0thmost net short in two years
Change, 4 weeks−42,146−839 last week
Twelve month range−68,840 to +56,107low to high, contracts
WeekNet positionChange
20 Oct 2026−68,840−839
13 Oct 2026−68,001−23,740
6 Oct 2026−44,261−4,996
29 Sept 2026−39,265−12,571
22 Sept 2026−26,694+1,462
15 Sept 2026−28,156+5,129
8 Sept 2026−33,285+4,888
1 Sept 2026−38,173+186
25 Aug 2026−38,359+19,357
18 Aug 2026−57,716+2,884
11 Aug 2026−60,600−8,395
4 Aug 2026−52,205—

Non-commercial net position in contracts, published weekly by the CFTC with a three day lag, so the newest row describes the previous Tuesday. The percentile is over three years; the range and weekly changes are over the last twelve months. Full page for Euro

A crowded market is not a timing signal.

Positioning can sit at an extreme for months. What it tells you is how much of the move is already owned, which changes the risk on a trade rather than the direction of it.

Inside the terminal, retail crowding is folded into the composite score as a contrarian input carrying 10%, and positioning carries a further 18% split across level and weekly flow.

See the full method
  • Measured againstIts own three year range
  • Crowded long80th percentile and above
  • Crowded short20th percentile and below
  • Retail is readContrarian
  • UpdatedCOT weekly, retail per snapshot

Every market, weekly. The terminal has the full history behind each one.

In the terminal, COT positioning and Retail positioning carry the long and short split, net position, weekly change and the percentile on every tracked market, and COT history and Retail history carry the history behind each one, including the weeks a book flipped side and a pair's two legs against their own years. Those four panels are Pro. Every new account opens with 14 days of Pro, no card, and then stays free on 2 boards, with positioning still feeding the free Asset scores and three months of COT history.

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