Research

Read the market like a desk.

Clear, practical explainers on positioning, central banks and the macro forces that actually move FX, metals and indices. Written by the desk behind the terminal, in plain language, with the same data the platform runs on.

Institutional positioning panel in WatchTower Terminal showing COT net positions
Positioning

How to Read the COT Report (Without Fooling Yourself)

A plain-language guide to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report: who is in it, what the net position actually tells you, and the traps that catch most traders.

James LNE ·
Rate differentials panel in WatchTower Terminal comparing policy rates across currencies
Central Banks

Rate Differentials Explained: Why Interest Rates Move Currencies

Interest rate differentials are one of the strongest forces in FX. Here is what they are, why the expected path matters more than the level, and when they stop working.

Institutional consensus panel in WatchTower Terminal aggregating bank FX research
FX Fundamentals

How to Read Bank Research Consensus in FX

Sell-side FX research is noisy and often wrong. Used well, the consensus across many banks is still a genuine edge. Here is how I read it, and how to avoid herding.

WatchTower Terminal pair table sorted by carry, showing the interest paid or earned to hold each pair
FX Fundamentals

The Carry Trade Explained: Earning the Rate Differential

The carry trade is one of the oldest ways to make money in FX, and one of the fastest to blow up. Here is how it works, where the return comes from, and what kills it.

WatchTower Terminal cross-asset risk read: a fear-and-greed gauge with the regime favouring havens (JPY, CHF, USD) and pressuring high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD)
Market Structure

Risk-On, Risk-Off: How Sentiment Drives FX

Some days fundamentals move currencies. Other days one thing moves everything: the market's appetite for risk. Here is how to read the risk regime and why it overrides the rest.

The full WatchTower Terminal dashboard bringing rates, research and positioning into one view
Getting Started

How Corroboration Works: Reading Positioning, Research and Rates Together

No single signal is reliable on its own. The real edge in macro is corroboration, when independent reads all point the same way. Here is how I layer them.

The US dollar asset page in WatchTower Terminal, with its composite score, macro breakdown and rate path
FX Fundamentals

What Moves the US Dollar

The dollar sits on one side of most FX trades, so understanding it matters more than any other currency. Here are the forces that actually move it, and the dollar smile.

Central bank stance panel in WatchTower Terminal across the major central banks
Central Banks

How to Read a Central Bank Meeting

A rate decision is the least interesting part of a central bank meeting. The market trades the guidance and the surprise. Here is what to watch and how the reaction works.

A currency correlation matrix in WatchTower Terminal, colour-coded from minus one to plus one across the majors
Market Structure

Currency Correlations: Why Pairs Move Together

Currency pairs are not independent. Understanding which ones move together, which move opposite, and why it changes in a panic keeps you from stacking the same bet.

WatchTower Terminal advanced chart with retail positioning, COT net and score sub-panels stacked under price
Positioning

Retail Sentiment vs COT: The Two Crowds

Retail traders and institutions are two different crowds, and they are often on opposite sides. Here is how to read retail sentiment, and why the divergence is the signal.

WatchTower Terminal advanced chart with session overlays marking the trading day
Market Structure

FX Trading Sessions and Liquidity

The FX market runs 24 hours, but it does not trade the same all day. Understanding the sessions and where liquidity concentrates changes how you read every move.

WatchTower Terminal pair analyst view showing a central bank hold, dovish bias and forward guidance in the narrative
Central Banks

Forward Guidance Explained

Central banks move markets with words, not just rates. Forward guidance steers the expected path of policy, which is what currencies actually trade. Here is how it works.

WatchTower Terminal macro matrix showing the economic and rate backdrop across markets
Getting Started

What Is Macro Trading?

Macro trading means reading markets top-down, through the big forces of rates, growth, policy and risk, rather than company details or chart patterns alone. Here is what it is and how to start.

WatchTower Terminal currency intelligence view across the major currencies
Getting Started

What Moves Currency Prices? A Beginner's Guide

Currencies move on a handful of big forces: interest rates, economic data, risk sentiment and positioning. Here is a plain-language guide to each, and how they fit together.

WatchTower Terminal research desk view combining macro and analytical reads
Getting Started

Fundamental vs Technical Analysis in FX

The two ways to read a currency market are not enemies. Fundamentals explain the why and the direction, technicals help with the when and the where. Here is an honest comparison.