The data beat expectations. The question is whether the pair noticed.
Every calendar tells you what printed. A surprise index tells you whether the run of data is beating or missing what was priced. Neither tells you whether the pair you trade is still moving with it, and for long stretches it is not. WatchTower carries all three, and the third one says plainly when the answer is no.
Three questions
In the order a trader actually asks them.
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What was expected, and what printed
Economic calendar
Every release in the order it happens, with its number against consensus once it lands and a countdown until it does. This part is a commodity: every broker gives it away, and so does WatchTower, on the free plan.
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Whether the run of data is beating or missing
Data surprises, Data against forecasts
One number per currency built from how its recent releases landed against consensus, weighted so a payrolls miss is not treated like a second-tier survey. It answers whether an economy is running hot or cold relative to what was already priced, which is the part the level of any single print cannot tell you.
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Whether the pair is still moving with it
Data surprises, Is price following the data
The question nobody else asks. A pair can have a wide surprise differential and ignore it completely, because the market is trading something else that month. This measures how closely a pair has actually tracked the gap recently, and says plainly when the answer is "it has not".
Depth
A calendar, or a read.
Being straight about it
What this measurement cannot do.
Sensitivity is a measurement of recent behaviour, not a forecast. It says how closely a pair has been tracking the surprise differential over the window, and it carries a stated confidence so a thin or noisy relationship is not presented at the same weight as a strong one. It does not say the pair will move on the next print.
The useful reading is often the negative one. A pair with a wide differential and no sensitivity is telling you the market is trading something else this month, which is worth knowing before you build a trade on a data thesis the market has stopped pricing.
The panels
Six panels.
- Data surprises. Pro. How each currency's economic data has landed against forecasts and the releases behind it, weighted by each release's importance and how recently it printed; which pairs are following the gap in their data; and one pair in detail.
- Economic calendar. Free. Every release in the window in the order it happens, with now marked: what has landed carries its number against consensus, what has not carries a countdown. Filter by impact, rank by the biggest surprise, or read it as a week grid or as event risk by currency. The desk forecasts inside it are Pro.
- Macro fundamentals. Pro. The fundamentals score each of the 9 currencies carries, the indicator grid it is rolled up from, and every scored release for a single asset with what it printed, what was expected and how it was scored.
- Macro state. Pro. What each economy is actually doing apart from whether its prints beat consensus: growth, inflation, labour, consumer, business, housing and external, each against its own ten years, beside the surprise index. Or one economy against another, pillar by pillar.
- Economic health. Pro. One score from 0 to 100 for each of the eight economies, from GDP, unemployment, the PMIs, retail sales and industrial production, with every indicator charted against its bands.
- Macro indicator history. Pro. Any currency's economic indicator through time, as a line or columns, compared across currencies and read under the crosshair.
Surprise and sensitivity, answered.
What is an economic surprise index?
A single figure per economy built from how its recent data releases landed against the consensus forecast, rather than from the level of the data itself. An economy printing weak numbers that everyone already expected is not a surprise; one printing merely acceptable numbers where a disaster was priced is. Markets move on the gap, not the level.
How is it weighted?
By how much each release matters, so a first-tier print is not treated like a second-tier survey, and by recency, so a month-old surprise fades rather than sitting in the number forever.
Does a wide surprise differential mean the pair will move?
No, and this is the part worth reading twice. A differential says the data is diverging; it does not say the market cares this month. Pairs go through long stretches driven by rate expectations, risk appetite or flow, ignoring the data entirely. That is exactly why Data surprises has its Is price following the data read: it measures whether the pair has actually been tracking the gap, and says so plainly when it has not.
Is the sensitivity reading a forecast?
No. It is a measurement of recent behaviour with a stated confidence, not a prediction of the next print. A reading with thin history or a weak relationship is labelled as such rather than presented at the same weight as a strong one.
Which currencies are covered?
All 9 scored currencies, and the read on whether price is following the data covers the pairs between the eight majors.
Is it free?
The Economic calendar is free, with every print against consensus and the countdown to the next one. Data surprises, which carries the surprise index and the read on whether a pair is following it, is Pro at $49 a month, as are the desk forecasts inside the calendar. Every new account opens with 14 days of Pro with no card, then stays on the free plan of 15 of the 49 panels.