WatchTower

One number per market, and the arithmetic that produced it.

Every indicator vendor sells a score from 0 to 100. The only thing that separates one from another is whether you can take it apart. Every weight in this model is published, every driver opens, and every score carries what it did this week.

The weights

A currency, 7 components, published.

Fundamentals 22.5% Releases against consensus
Central bank 18% Stance and priced path
Bank research 18% Extracted desk calls
Seasonality 13.5% Historical tendency
Retail sentiment 10% Read contrarian
COT level 9% Positioning extreme
COT flow 9% Weekly change

Retail sentiment is drawn differently because it works differently: it is the one component read contrarian, so a crowded long counts against the bullish case rather than for it.

Indices are scored on their own set

Because earnings matter and a rate differential does not.

COT level 20% Positioning extreme
Earnings 20% Weighted beat rate
Bank research 15% Extracted desk calls
Seasonality 15% Historical tendency
Central bank 15% Stance and priced path
Fundamentals 15% Releases against consensus

The bands

Neutral is wide, and that is on purpose.

Below 45Bearish
45 to 55Neutral
56 and aboveBullish

Not a split at 50. A model that turns from bearish to bullish at 50.1 is presenting noise as a signal, so there is a band in the middle where the honest answer is that the evidence does not point anywhere.

A composite score opened into its drivers, with each component's contribution
A score, opened: every driver, what it reads and what it contributed.

Depth

A number, or a derivation.

A typical signal service WatchTower
A single number per market
The components behind it
The exact weight of each component
What each driver is reading right now
The score through time
What changed since the last run, and why
A neutral band wide enough to mean it
Three marks is present and derived, one is present but raw, none is absent. Anybody can print a number. The rows underneath are what make it checkable.

The panels

Three panels.

  • Asset scores. Free. Every one of the 24 monitored markets with its composite, which way it reads and what it did this week. Open a row for what each driver is contributing and the weight it carries, switch to every driver against every currency in one grid, or order the board by the biggest move this week or by distance from neutral.
  • Asset in full. Pro. One asset three ways: its composite, bias, written read and strongest drivers at a glance; every driver behind the score, its weight and how hard it pulls; or the research desk's full read.
  • Score history. Pro. How the scores have moved: each asset's composite over its recent runs, what has shifted since a run or ten ago and which crossed neutral, where the score and the price disagree, which assets lead or fade against the rest, and one market's bullish and bearish runs drawn on its price chart.

The scoring model, answered.

What do the numbers mean?

A composite from 0 to 100 per market. Bullish is 56 and above, bearish is below 45, and everything between is neutral. That is a deliberately wide neutral band: a model that flips from bullish to bearish at 50.1 is presenting noise as a signal.

What goes into the score?

7 components for a currency: fundamentals at 22.5%, central bank at 18%, bank research at 18%, seasonality at 13.5%, retail sentiment at 10%, cot level at 9%, cot flow at 9%. Indices are scored on their own set, because earnings matter for an index and a rate differential does not in the same way.

Why is retail sentiment subtracted rather than added?

Because it is read contrarian. When the retail crowd is heavily long a market, that is treated as a mark against the bullish case rather than for it, at a weight of 10%. It is the only component in the model that works in the opposite direction to its own reading, and it is the one most people misread.

Can I see how a score was reached?

Yes, and this is the whole point. Every score opens into its drivers: what each component is reading and what it contributed. Score history shows what changed since the last run, and the Timeline names the input that drove each move and what pulled the other way. A number you cannot take apart is an opinion with a decimal point on it.

Do the weights ever change?

Occasionally, when the evidence warrants it. They are published rather than described, so a change is visible rather than silent.

How many markets are scored?

24: the 9 currencies, 6 metals and energy contracts, and 9 equity indices.

Is scoring free?

Yes. Asset scores is free, with all 24 markets and the drivers behind each, and free accounts see three months of score history. Asset in full, Score history and the full record are Pro at $49 a month, and every new account opens with 14 days of Pro with no card.